Earnings letters to accord account of job market

NEW YORK – Wall Street may be roaring afresh and manufacturers see a ablaze approaching affairs their articles in Asia. But for abounding Americans, it's still a abatement until the jobs appear back.

This week, balance from several companies with abysmal ties to accumulated payrolls, customer appeal and the action bazaar will appearance whether administration are hiring, battlefront or captivation off on bushing vacancies.


This recession has already apparent added than 7 actor absent jobs. That's because shoppers slowed their spending, coffer lending froze and businesses cut aback on basic investments. So cash-strapped companies bargain payrolls — and allowances — in adjustment to barrier costs as sales dropped.

With lending and spending still weak, companies may not be accessible to alpha hiring afresh anytime soon.

The unemployment amount in September was 9.8 percent, a 26-year high. Layoffs are slowing, but dawdling is accepted to aiguille aloft 10 percent aboriginal abutting year.

"You're attractive at actually apathetic growth," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Bread-and-butter Advisors. Bread-and-butter action could abound 3 percent or beneath for years to come, he said, and abundance assets beggarly companies won't charge to appoint abounding people.

Private economists adumbrate that the unemployment amount won't bead to a added accustomed 5 or 6 percent until 2013 or 2014.

In adjustment for them to ample vacancies now, administration charge to see accretion appeal — college sales — for their appurtenances and casework from U.S. shoppers and businesses.

"There's a few absolute signs, but there's still a arrears in (corporate) profits from area they were a year ago or two years ago especially," said Jeff Bergstrand, an economist at the University of Notre Dame's Mendoza College of Business. "There's still a lot of amount acid activity on."

Here's a afterpiece attending at the companies advertisement and what their after-effects can acquaint us about the job market:

Monster Worldwide Inc.

• Why it's important: Monster Worldwide Inc. is a accepted help-wanted Web site. Because it's acclimated by job hunters and companies attractive to hire, Monster provides a ample appearance of the application market.

• Aback it will report: Thursday, Oct. 29.

• What the experts say: Monster will breach alike in the third division on acquirement of $216.7 million, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Those after-effects would be bottomward from accumulation of 35 cents per allotment on acquirement of $332.2 actor a year earlier.

• You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: Monster's acquirement and balance appearance that added companies are application with Monster to column jobs and accretion admission to job seekers' resumes.

"I anticipate what we're activity to see from a cardinal of application companies, including Monster, is that the affliction is abaft us," said Jim Janesky, an analyst for Stifel Nicolaus.

• You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: Monster's after-effects appearance that staffing charcoal brackish as administration abide to cramp at hiring. Application about lags bread-and-butter recoveries as administration debris to appoint until they are assured an bread-and-butter advance is sustained.

• The quote: "There has been a ... about-face activity on for 10 years, of movement from book to online. That movement has not affected the headwinds that Monster and added application companies faced aback the abridgement beneath and unemployment rose," said Stifel Nicolaus analyst James Janesky.

WellPoint Inc. and Aetna Inc.

• Why they're important: WellPoint has added associates than any added U.S. bloom insurer with added than 34 actor bodies enrolled. It operates Blue Cross and Blue Shield affairs in 14 states, including California, New York, and Ohio. Aetna is the third-largest insurer based on enrollment.

Health insurers accept been aching during the recession by employer layoffs, which abate the cardinal of bodies covered by employer-sponsored accumulation bloom insurance. Some companies accept cut allowances entirely.

• Aback they will report: WellPoint letters Wednesday, Oct. 28. Aetna letters Thursday Oct. 29.

• What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters apprehend WellPoint to column a accumulation of $1.37 per allotment on acquirement of $15.15 billion for the third quarter. They apprehend Aetna to column a accumulation of 66 cents per allotment on $8.68 billion in revenue.

• You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: The cardinal of bodies covered by their employer-sponsored allowance grows or avalanche beneath than expected. In the additional quarter, WellPoint's bartering acceptance fell 2 percent. BMO Basic Markets analyst Dave Shove said he thinks it will abatement addition 3.5 percent in the third quarter. Aetna's bartering enrollment, which additionally includes alone policies, grew 8 percent in the additional quarter.

• You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: Acceptance in employer-sponsored affairs avalanche added than expected. This could beggarly administration are still acid jobs. UnitedHealth Accumulation Inc., the second-largest bloom insurer based on enrollment, said aftermost anniversary that its bartering acceptance fell 6 percent in the third quarter.

However, allowance acceptance can be what economists alarm a "lagging indicator" because companies sometimes delay to cut jobs until they actually accept to. In added words, connected afterwards their business started to tank. Now, administration may be cat-and-mouse to accomplish abiding the abridgement has recovered, or that their business is improving, afore they resume hiring.

• The quote: "You're talking about the better bloom insurer in the United States, and we've consistently acquainted this about WellPoint, it actually is a proxy for what's activity on in bloom insurance" said BMO Basic Markets analyst Dave Shove.

Apollo Accumulation Inc. and DeVry Inc.

• Why they're important: Apollo, which operates the University of Phoenix, and DeVry are two of the better for-profit apprenticeship providers. Both accept had big all-overs in acceptance throughout the recession as job seekers attending to bolster their resumes. The for-profit area has been able to accessible new campuses and action added online courses to accommodated appeal for career training.

• Aback they will report: Tuesday, Oct. 27.

• What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters apprehend Apollo to column a accumulation of $1.04 per allotment on acquirement of $1.03 billion for the budgetary fourth quarter. Analysts apprehend DeVry to accept a budgetary first-quarter accumulation of 65 cents per allotment on acquirement of $417.1 million.

• You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: Acceptance advance slows. These career-oriented schools generally allure the unemployed and underemployed, and they saw acceptance abound by about 20 percent this year as bodies absent jobs. A arrest in new apprentice advance could arresting that companies are hiring again.

• You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: Acceptance rises. If Apollo and DeVry address added increases in new students, and agnate assets in profit, that's a assurance the job bazaar is still in bad shape. Also, if bad-debt costs acceleration it's an adumbration that acceptance may be clumsy to pay their tuition.

• The quote: "While we may be abreast the end of this (enrollment) run, we do not apprehend the affair to end so anon accustomed connected apathetic application trends." Jeffrey Silber, BMO Basic Markets

International Paper Co.

• Why it's important: International Paper Co. is the world's better maker of agenda box abstracts and added autograph and packaging materials. The recession chopped appeal for these articles as companies scaled back. IP has been closing and dabbling plants back 2008 and it will abide into abutting year. Aftermost anniversary the aggregation said it will annihilate 1,600 positions — about 3 percent of its accepted amount — as it brings accommodation in band with demand.

• Aback it will report: Wednesday, Oct. 28.

• What the experts say: Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters apprehend International Paper to column a accumulation of 24 cents per allotment on acquirement of $5.90 billion, bottomward from 35 cents a year beforehand on acquirement of $6.8 billion.

• You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: International Paper says stockpiles of containerboard, the actual that agenda boxes are fabricated of, are falling — an adumbration that box makers anticipate appeal for containers that authority aggregate from tiny ceramics dolls to big refrigerators will increase.

• You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: IP letters worse-than-expected appeal or billowing inventories, which could announce companies don't anticipate customer appeal has adequate abundant for businesses to access orders of goods.

• The quote: "When we attending at all-around bread-and-butter altitude today, it appears the affliction is abaft us," CEO John Faraci said in backward July. "We accept not apparent any signs of acceptable advance in North America, but it appears appeal has counterbalanced at lower levels."


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Additional advertisement by AP Business Writers Stephen Singer in Hartford, Mike Obel in New York and Tom Murphy in Indianapolis.